Trends in the pharmaceutical industry
The value of drug sales in the country by 2020 will grow to 2.0-3.0%, as the number of people entering the hospital, both Thai and foreign, is likely to decrease due to the concern of infection during the epidemic of Covid-19 virus And strict social spacing measures in the first half of 2020 should make drug sales through hospitals, the main market, slow down.
However, in 2021-2022, it is expected that the value of drug sales in the country will expand at an average rate of 4.5-5.0% due to increased demand for drugs. From the following supporting factors
1. Illness tends to increase. Both communicable and non-communicable diseases The most important contagious disease was diarrhea, followed by pneumonia and dengue fever. Non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs) with the highest rate of new illnesses per population are High blood pressure Followed by diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease And cardiovascular disease While the number of the elderly population continuously increases Most of which have Illness with non-communicable diseases Especially high blood pressure Almost half of the total number of elderly is followed by diabetes, heart disease, stroke and cancer. The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board It is expected that those aged over 60 in Thailand will increase from 11.2 million in 2018 to 13.5 million in 2023 and the health expenditure of the elderly will increase to 2.28 billion baht (2.8% of GDP) in 2022 from 6.3 billion baht in 2010 (2.1% of GDP) (from the National Health Development Plan 12/2017 – 2021), reflecting the increasing domestic drug consumption Which includes the demand for The import of original drugs is likely to increase continuously.
2. Thai people have access to improved treatment channels under the universal health coverage system. With rights under the health insurance system covering over 99% of the Thai population Most of the treatment rights are through the health insurance card (gold card), more than 75%, followed by the social security card (17% share) and health insurance with the insurance company (7%). Medical expenses (medicine and treatment expenses) will continue to grow at an average rate of 6.6% from 6.3% in 2019, with the government growing 6.9% and private companies 5.5% from 6.7% and 5.1% in 2019. Respectively
3. The number of foreign patients expected to return to use in Thailand increased in 2021-2022 after contracting in 2020 because Thailand still has the advantage both In terms of service quality, cost, and treatment standards Combined with the Thai hospitals, progress and readiness in specialized medical centers Especially the treatment of chronic non-communicable diseases (such as heart disease, bone disease, cancer) as well as elderly care centers that have low costs compared to Competing countries (such as Singapore and Malaysia) causing Thailand to have more foreign patients Both the general tourist and medical tourists (Tourist & Medical tourist), which accounts for about 80% of all international patients, most of them will still come from East Asia, Europe and the Middle East respectively.
4. The increasing trend of health care among Thai people after facing Covid-19 Causing the need for medical attention or to buy medication to treat illness Even if only a small amount has a tendency to increase From concerns in the outbreak of new diseases
Investment related to the pharmaceutical industry in 2021-2022 is likely to expand. Supporting factors came from increased drug demand. And government investment support policies Manufacturers will be exempt from corporate income tax for 5 years under the BOI investment promotion measures, including the pharmaceutical industry being a new S-curve industry with government investment plans in the area. Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and is a high-tech industrial group supported by the government in terms of budget, research and tax incentives. These factors will drive Allow investment to improve after stagnation in 2020.
Opportunities for developing Thai production potential to reduce dependence on imported drugs The government has a policy to encourage domestic drug manufacturers to produce high-value, original or out-of-patent drugs (such as antihypertensive drugs, diabetes and antibiotics, etc.), as well as biopharmaceuticals that are in demand. There is a tendency to increase, such as anti-cancer drugs. Capital groups have plans to advance the production of important drug raw materials, such as PTT Group and the Pharmaceutical Organization build a factory to produce cancer drugs, covering 3 main groups of drugs, namely 1. Chemotherapy Tablets and injections (Chemotherapy), which is a basic medicine for cancer treatment 2. Tablets and similar injections of Monoclonal antibodies (Biosimilar) and 3. Targeted Therapy. SCG Chemical Group will invest in the production of biologics. And pharmaceutical companies (Bangkok Hospital Group) will produce raw material substrate
In addition, Thailand has many advantages. Doctors and medical engineers who are knowledgeable in researching, especially vaccines, a wide variety of herbal preparations, can be extracted as medical precursors / biopharmaceuticals. (Biomedical / Biopharma) and progress in bioinformatics (Bioinformatics) used to develop medical research And increased medication
After the ongoing spread of many strains of virus in the years since Smer Ebola and most recently, Covid-19 These factors will help Thailand have the potential to develop quality medicines and vaccines at a lower price. This will help to reduce some of the expensive imported raw / traditional medicine raw materials.
However, the competition in the pharmaceutical industry is likely to intensify. From cheap imported pharmaceutical products from India and China, the rise of New investor Especially the entrance of foreign investors (such as Japan) using Thailand as a base for generic drugs for export in In their country and to penetrate the CLMV market and the investment of capital groups from other businesses in the country While the cost of pharmaceutical manufacturers in the country tends to increase From the cost of improving the pharmaceutical factory to meet the GMP-PIC / S standard and the price of imported drugs / imported pharmaceutical raw materials that are likely to increase